On this episode, John Casey delves into the psychological phenomenon known as confirmation bias, an often-overlooked cognitive bias that significantly influences our perceptions and decisions. In this blog post, we'll discuss what confirmation bias is, provide practical examples, and explore how it can be both a triumph and a tragedy in our lives.

Confirmation bias is the tendency for people to favor information that confirms their preconceptions or biases, irrespective of whether the information is true. It’s worth noting that this definition isn't something you’ll find in a psychology textbook but rather derived from common observation.

In explaining confirmation bias, we caution against absolutes—words like "always" and "never"—as they rarely apply. However, in this context, two absolutes are used intentionally:

• Everyone always looks for examples that support what they believe.
• Everyone always discounts examples that don't.‍

These absolutes illustrate how confirmation bias operates unconsciously. People continually seek or interpret evidence that aligns with their existing beliefs, often ignoring or downplaying contradictory information.

Let’s examine some everyday scenarios where confirmation bias plays a crucial role:

Air Travel: Frequent travelers often claim, “My flights are always late.” Statistically, this isn’t true—about 22-23% of flights are delayed or late. However, those who hold this belief only vocalize their experiences when flights are delayed, ignoring or forgetting the numerous times flights were on time. This selective recall reinforces their belief.‍

Workplace Dynamics: Consider an employee who believes their boss is incompetent. During a week, the boss might make nine sound decisions and one poor decision. The employee will remember the poor decision vividly, using it as evidence of the boss’s incompetence, while disregarding the nine correct decisions. The same applies to positive confirmations; if an employee thinks highly of their boss, they'll notice and remember the good decisions while ignoring the occasional misstep.

Through repetitive thought and reflection, we form strong beliefs, which then drive our actions and, consequently, our results. For instance, success in life often follows a linear path: our thoughts influence our beliefs, which affect our actions, and ultimately determine our results. Over time, these repeated thoughts solidify into beliefs.

Adults have approximately 60,000 thoughts daily, with around 90% being repetitive. Only 10% are new thoughts, emphasizing the power of habitual thinking. Confirmation bias emerges from this repetition, leading us to seek examples that support our dominant beliefs.

While confirmation bias is neutral, its impact depends on its application. Positively applied, it can reinforce self-belief and personal growth.

• Self-Improvement: Believing in one’s ability to improve and recognizing examples of progress fosters continuous development.
• Learning from Mistakes: Acknowledging that mistakes provide valuable learning experiences helps transform weaknesses into strengths.
• Positive Reinforcement: Looking for the best in others enhances personal and professional relationships.

Unfortunately, confirmation bias can also undermine self-esteem and potential:

• Self-Doubt: Focusing on past failures can perpetuate a belief in personal inadequacy, leading to a lack of resilience.
• Negative Perceptions: Reinforcing beliefs that success is reserved for others and beyond one’s reach can stifle ambition and growth.

Given the unconscious nature of confirmation bias, maintaining high awareness throughout the day is crucial. Regularly assess whether you are using confirmation bias to lift yourself and others up or to contribute to negativity.

Confirmation bias ensures you will find exactly what you seek. The key is to seek well and utilize confirmation bias to your advantage. Elevate yourself and others with positive reinforcements, and let go of the tragic tendencies that diminish potential.